A sad day

This is a sad day for me and millions more committed Europeans, as the European Council and the Government of the United Kingdom agree the withdrawal of the UK from the European Union.

This decision drives a knife through my heart and my family. I am a proud European and Irish citizen, who is also by birth a British citizen. My children and all but one of my seven grandsons were born in Britain and are British citizens. If the withdrawal agreement is finally ratified by the parliaments of the United Kingdom and the European Union, on the 29th March 2019 their European citizenship will be taken away from them. They will lose the right they currently enjoy to move freely to study, to work and to live throughout the EU 27, unless they choose to take up the Irish and European citizenship to which they are entitled through me.

The Withdrawal Agreement negotiated by Theresa May is a bad deal for the UK. It takes away many of the rights enjoyed by the UK and will be economically damaging, because the free trade agreement between the EU and the UK, which has yet to be negotiated, will inevitably be worse for the UK economy than remaining in the EU. But at least it would keep the UK within the European Union ecosystem of shared regulation and trade on a level playing field, even if the UK will be unable to participate in making the regulations, as it has for the past 40 years. It also holds out the hope of future membership of the Customs Union and Single Market, and perhaps in future rejoining the European Union. But for now it looks unlikely that there is a majority in the Houise of Commons to confirm it.

The Withdrawal Agreement is infinitely better for both the UK and the EU, in particular Ireland, than the alternative of the UK leaving without an agreement - a hard Brexit. The UK would then have to trade with the world under WTA rules and tariffs. The just-in-time supply chains for food and goods would be shattered - a recipe for economic chaos, not just in the short term, but for years to come. The main casualty would be the UK economy, but it would also cause real problems us in Ireland, particularly for agri-business in rural Ireland, and to a lesser extent in other EU countries. It would effect me seriously - already my UK pension is worth nearly 15% less than it was before the Brexit vote, and Sterling can be expected to fall further in the event of hard Brexit. I find it very hard to believe that there is a majority in the House of Commons to follow this route.

What then are the alternatives? Many remainers are campaigning for a 'Peoples' Vote'. They justify it by saying that now people know more about what Brexit means they are entitled to vote again. If May's agreement falls in Parliament, they would like to call a 2nd referendum, and ask the EU to stop the clock on Brexit until this has been held. But it is not clear what question would be put to the people. This would be a high risk strategy. It appears that there has been very little change in popular opinion, which remains split close to 50:50, and I see a real possibility of another vote to leave, precipitating the hard Brexit no sane person wants to see.

The preferred alternative for the Labour leadership is to force a general election, which they believe would return Labour to power, perhaps in coalition, after which they would negotiate to stay in the Customs Union, if not the Single Market. This is also a high risk strategy. It is not at all clear that Labour would win such an election, nor that the EU would be prepared to reopen negotiations.

It seems to me that the UK political system is in a state of disfunctional collapse. There is no majority in Parliament for any course. The 'Fixed Term Parliaments Act' - a foolish innovation - makes it almost impossible to elect a new Parliament. The 50:50 split in the popular view of Brexit has held almost steady since 2016. The peoples of Scotland and Northern Ireland are increasingly at odds with a Westminster Parliament dominated by England.

I fear that continuing deadlock may bring the question to be answered on the streets, by violence. The Remain camp have already showed that they can mobilise up to 700,000 on the streets of London. No doubt the hard Brexit camp could do much the same in their heartlands, and bring with them a hard core of neo-fascist thugs. Fighting on the streets would undermine British democracy.

Much as my heart would love to see a reverse of Brexit, I wonder if the best way forward would be to pass May's Withdrawal Agreement, and to work to bring the final outcome as close as possible to EU membership in the long run.

I pray for the politicians in London, and Brussels and the EU27, that the decisions they make may be for the common good.

‘Events, dear boy, events!’

This article appeared in the 'View from the Pew' column in the December 2010 / January 2011 edition of Newslink, the diocesan magazine for Limerick & Killaloe.

… as Harold Macmillan is reputed to have said when asked ‘What do you fear most in politics?’

What an extraordinary week it has been for our country!
The dogs in the street knew ten days ago that talks had begun at official level that would lead inevitably to Ireland seeking a loan from the European Financial Stability Fund and the IMF. It was well signalled internationally by blogging economists (see the excellent irisheconomy.ie blog). But government ministers just kept on denying it. Either they were lying, or officials had simply bypassed them - charitably assuming the latter, clearly power had already slipped from their fingers.

Only after EU finance ministers met did the government admit that ‘technical discussions’ were taking place, but they still persisted in spreading confusion about the likely outcome. It finally fell to Central Bank Chairman Patrick Holohan to explain clearly what was happening. Three days later, on a Sunday, the Government announced that it had applied for a multi-billion euro loan facility. We will have to wait a little longer to know what the terms will be.

As I write, on Monday 22nd November, the government is visibly crumbling. The Taoiseach announced he would call a general election in the New Year, once the budget and the four year plan have been passed, after the Greens said they would pull out in January. But it is far from clear the government can last so long – we may well have an Advent general election. The pace of events is accelerating

The people have been badly served by successive Fianna Fáil led Governments, I feel.
Whatever the merits of the bank guarantee and NAMA, it is clear that the root of our financial problems is the mountain of debt taken on in the Celtic Tiger years. And we were landed with the debt by the golden circle of grasping bankers, megalomaniac developers and venal politicians, symbolised by the Fianna Fáil tent at Galway races. Brian Cowen encouraged the worst excesses when he was Minister of Finance. He is now Taoiseach. Fianna Fáil remains in office. It is almost past belief.

Since the beginning of the year the government must have seen the writing on the wall, as their popularity fell and their Dáil majority shrank. It would have been honourable and in the national interest if they had called a general election in the summer or autumn. A new government with a fresh mandate for five years could then have taken the difficult budget decisions now required, and negotiated the package of assistance we need with our European partners. Instead we have political instability coinciding with a massive financial crisis, which threatens the future not just of Ireland but of the Euro and the EU. By clinging to power this government have made serious problems much worse.

Why were elections not called earlier? Is it possible they have something more to hide? I pray not – but I recall that the Greek financial crisis was triggered by an incoming government discovering that the outgoing government had cooked the books and lied about it.

As we wait for the democratic process to take its course, we depend on the kindness of strangers.
Let us pray for the Irish and international negotiators seeking to resolve the present financial difficulties, that their decisions may be for the good of all. Let us pray for our country, that our people may recover the confidence required for economic recovery, and begin the task of creating a just and sustainable society for the future. And let us pray for all those who are impoverished by this great recession, that their lives may be made easier by the support of those less badly afflicted.

O Lord, guide and defend our rulers – and grant our government wisdom.